Learning from Past Climate Changes

In the last 540 million years, five mass extinction events shaped the history of the Earth. Those events were related to extreme climatic changes and were mainly caused by asteroid impacts, massive volcanic eruption, or the combination of both.  On a global scale the main forces behind climatic change are: solar forcing, atmospheric composition, plate tectonics, Earth’s biota, and of course, us. Human activity is a major driver of the dynamics of Earth system. From hunter-gatherer and agricultural communities to the highly technological societies of the 21st century, humans have driven the climate Earth system towards new, hotter climatic conditions. Until the Industrial Revolution, the average global CO2 levels fluctuated between about 170 ppm and 280 ppm. But with the beginning of the Industrial Era, that number risen above 300 ppm, currently averaging an increase of more than 2 ppm per year. The average monthly level of CO2 in the atmosphere in last April exceeded the 410 ppm for first time in history. Thus we could hit an average of 500 ppm within the next 45 years, a number that has been unprecedented for the past 50–100+ million years according to fossil plant-based CO2 estimates. This current human-driven change far exceed the rates of change driven by geophysical or biosphere forces that have altered the Earth System trajectory in the past, and it poses severe risks for health, economies and political stability. Learning from past climatic changes is critical to our future.

Planktonic foraminifera from the Sargasso Sea in the North Atlantic Ocean. (Photograph courtesy Colomban de Vargas, EPPO/SBRoscoff.)

Microfossils from deep-sea are crucial elements for the understanding of our past and present oceans. Their skeletons take up chemical signals from the sea water, in particular isotopes of oxygen and carbon. Over millions of years, these skeletons accumulate in the deep ocean to become a major component of biogenic deep-sea sediments. The importance of microfossils as tool for paleoclimate reconstruction was recognized early in the history of oceanography. John Murray, naturalist of the CHALLENGER Expedition (1872-1876) found that differences in species composition of planktonic foraminifera from ocean sediments contain clues about the temperatures in which they lived. The ratio of heavy and light Oxygen in foraminifera shells can reveal how cold the ocean was and how much ice existed at the time the shell formed. Another tool to reconstruct paleotemperatures is the ratio of magnesium to calcium (Mg/Ca) in foraminiferal shells. Mg2+ incorporation into foraminiferal calcite  is influenced by the temperature of the surrounding seawater, and the Mg/Ca ratios increase with increasing temperature.

Diatoms and radiolarians are susceptible to different set of dissolution parameters than calcareous fossils, resulting in a different distribution pattern at the sea floor and have been used for temperature estimates in the Pacific and in the Antarctic Oceans, especially where calcareous fossils are less abundant. Diatom assemblages are also used in reconstructions of paleoproductivity.

Scanning electron microscope image of different types of pollen grains. Image from Wikipedia.

Pollen and other palynomorphs proved to be an extraordinary tool to paleoenvironmental reconstruction too. Pollen analysis involves the quantitative examination of spores and pollen at successive horizons through a core, specially in lake, marsh or delta sediments, especially in Quaternary sediments where the parent plants are well known. This provide information on regional changes in vegetation through time, and it’s also a valuable tool for archaeologists because it gives clues about man’s early environment and his effect upon it.

Stomatal frequency of land plants, which has been shown in some species to vary inversely with atmospheric pCO2, has been used to estimate paleo-pCO2 for multiple geological time periods. Stomata are the controlled pores through which plants exchange gases with their environments, and play a key role in regulating the balance between photosynthetic productivity and water loss through transpiration.

Temple I on The Great Plaza and North Acropolis seen from Temple II in Tikal, Guatemala. From Wikimedia Commons

Paleoecological records indicate that the transition to agriculture was a fundamental turning point in the environmental history of Mesoamerica. Tropical forests were reduced by agricultural expansion associated with growing human populations. Also soil loss associated with deforestation and erosion was one of the most consequential environmental impacts associated with population expansion in the Maya lowlands. This environmental crisis ended with the collapse of the Classic Maya society.

Human activity has significantly altered the climate in less than a century. Since 1970 the global average temperature has been rising at a rate of 1.7°C per century, and the rise in global CO2 concentration since 2000 is 10 times faster than any sustained rise in CO2 during the past 800,000 years. Today the most politically unstable countries are also places where environmental degradation affected food production and water supply. Other human societies have succumbed to climate change – like the Akkadians – while others have survived by changing their behavior in response to environmental change. We have the opportunity to protect the future of our own society by learning from the mistakes of our ancestors.

References:

David Evans, Navjit Sagoo, Willem Renema, Laura J. Cotton, Wolfgang Müller, Jonathan A. Todd, Pratul Kumar Saraswati, Peter Stassen, Martin Ziegler, Paul N. Pearson, Paul J. Valdes, Hagit P. Affek. Eocene greenhouse climate revealed by coupled clumped isotope-Mg/Ca thermometry. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2018; 201714744 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1714744115

Nicholas P. Evans et al., Quantification of drought during the collapse of the classic Maya civilization, Science (2018); DOI: 10.1126/science.aas9871 

Will Steffen, et al.; Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene; PNAS (2018) DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1810141115

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Lessons from the past: Paleobotany and Climate Change

 

From 1984–2012, extensive greening has occurred in the tundra of Western Alaska, the northern coast of Canada, and the tundra of Quebec and Labrador. Credits: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center/Cindy Starr.

For the last 540 million years, Earth’s climate has oscillated between three basic states: Icehouse, Greenhouse (subdivided into Cool and Warm states), and Hothouse. The “Hothouse” condition is relatively short-lived and is consequence from the release of anomalously large inputs of CO2 into the atmosphere during the formation of Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs), when atmospheric CO2 concentrations may rise above 16 times (4,800 ppmv), while the “Icehouse” is characterized by polar ice, with alternating glacial–interglacial episodes in response to orbital forcing. The ‘Cool Greenhouse” displays  some polar ice and alpine glaciers,  with global average temperatures between 21° and 24°C. Finally, the ‘Warm Greenhouse’ lacks of any polar ice, and global average temperatures might have ranged from 24° to 30°C.

Reconstructions of Earth’s history have considerably improved our knowledge of episodes of rapid emissions of greenhouse gases and abrupt warming. Several episodes of global climate change were similar in magnitude to the anthropogenically forced climate change that has occurred during the past century. Consequently, the development of different proxy measures of paleoenvironmental parameters has received growing attention in recent years. Paleobotany, the study of fossil plants in deep geological time, offers key insights into vegetation responses to past global change, including suitable analogs for Earth’s climatic future.

Monthly average atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii.

The main forces of climatic change on a global scale are solar forcing, atmospheric composition, plate tectonics, Earth’s biota, and of course, us. Human activity is a major driver of the dynamics of Earth system. Until the Industrial Revolution, the average global CO2 levels fluctuated between about 170 ppm and 280 ppm. But with the beginning of the Industrial Era, that number risen above 300 ppm, currently averaging an increase of more than 2 ppm per year. The average monthly level of CO2 in the atmosphere on last April exceeded the 410 ppm for first time in history. Thus we could hit an average of 500 ppm within the next 45 years, a number that have been unprecedented for the past 50–100+ million years according to fossil plant-based CO2 estimates. Therefore, the closest analog for today conditions is the Eocene, meaning greater similarities in continental configuration, ecosystem structure and function, and global carbon cycling.

Some of the best-studied intervals of global change in the fossil plant record include the Triassic–Jurassic boundary, 201.36 ± 0.17 Mya; the PETM, 56 Mya; and the Eocene–Oligocene boundary, 33.9 Mya.The first two events represent rapid greenhouse gas–induced global warming episodes; the last coincides with the initiation of the Antarctic ice sheet and global cooling leading to our current icehouse.

Time line of plant evolution (From McElwain, 2018)

During the PETM, compositional shifts in terrestrial vegetation were marked but transient in temperate latitudes and long-lived in the tropics. The PETM is characterized by the release of 5 billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, while temperatures increased by 5 – 8°C. High temperatures and likely increased aridity in the North American temperate biomes resulted in geologically rapid compositional changes as local mixed deciduous and evergreen forest taxa (such as Taxodium) decreased in relative abundance. These suggest that global warming has a marked effect on the composition of terrestrial plant communities that is driven predominantly by migration rather than extinction. However, it’s difficult to draw parallels with Anthropocene warming and vegetation responses because they are occurring at a minimum of 20 times faster than any past warming episode in Earth’s history.

In the early Eocene (56 to 49 Mya), a time of peak sustained global warmth, the Arctic Ocean was ice free, with a mosaic of mixed deciduous, evergreen (Picea, Pinus), and swamp forests, and with high densities of the aquatic fern Azolla. The Azolla bloom reduced the carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to 650 ppm, reducing temperatures and setting the stage for our current icehouse Earth. The eventual demise of Azolla in the Arctic Ocean is attributed to reduced runoff and a slight salinity increase.

The modern fern Azolla filiculoides (From Wikipedia)

The Earth’s poles have warmed and will continue to warm at a faster rate than the average planetary warming, because the heat is readily transported poleward by oceans and the atmosphere due to positive feedback effects involving snow cover, albedo, vegetation, soot, and algal cover in the Arctic and Antarctic. This phenomenon is known as “polar amplification”.

Recent studies about the greening of the Arctic indicates that increasing shrubiness has likely already had an unexpected negative impact on herbivore populations, such as caribou, by decreasing browse quality. Thus, it is important to predict how short-term temporal trends in Arctic vegetation change will continue under CO2-induced global warming. The paleobotanical record of high Arctic floras may provide broad insight into these questions.

References:

Jennifer C. McElwain, Paleobotany and Global Change: Important Lessons for Species to Biomes from Vegetation Responses to Past Global Change, Annual Review of Plant Biology  (2018), DOI: 10.1146/annurev-arplant-042817-040405

 

A brief introduction to the Carnian Pluvial Episode.

Early-late Carnian (Late Triassic) palaeogeographic reconstruction showing some of the main vertebrate-bearing units (From Bernardi et al. 2018)

Dinosaurs likely originated in the Early to Middle Triassic. The Manda beds of Tanzania yielded the remains of the possible oldest dinosaur, Nyasasaurus parringtoni, and Asilisaurus, a silesaurid (the immediate sister-group to Dinosauria). However the oldest well-dated identified dinosaurs are from the late Carnian of the lower Ischigualasto Formation in northwestern Argentina, dated from 231.4 Ma to 225.9 Ma. The presence of dinosaurs, such as Panphagia, Eoraptor, and Herrerasaurus support the argument that Dinosauria originated during the Ladinian or earlier and that they were already well diversified in the early Carnian. Similarly, the Santa Maria and Caturrita formations in southern Brazil preserve basal dinosauromorphs, basal saurischians, and early sauropodomorphs. In North America, the oldest dated occurrences of vertebrate assemblages with dinosaurs are from the Chinle Formation. Two further early dinosaur-bearing formations, are the lower (and upper) Maleri Formation of India and the Pebbly Arkose Formation of Zimbabwe. These skeletal records of early dinosaurs document a time when they were not numerically abundant, and they were still of modest body size (Eoraptor had a slender body with an estimated weight of about 10 kilograms).

Trace fossil evidence suggests that the first dinosaur dispersal in the eastern Pangaea is synchronous with an important climate-change event named the “Carnian Pluvial Episode” (CPE) or “Wet Intermezzo”, dated to 234–232 Ma.

Skeleton of Eoraptor lunensis (PVSJ 512) in left lateral view. Scale bar equals 10 cm. From Sereno et al., 2013.

The Late Triassic is marked by a return to the hothouse condition of the Early Triassic, with two greenhouse crisis that may also have played a role in mass extinctions. Isotopic  records suggest  a global carbon cycle perturbation during the Carnian that was coincident with complex environmental changes and biotic turnover.

The CPE is often described as a shift from arid to more humid conditions (global warming, ocean acidification, mega-monsoonal conditions, and a generalised increase in rainfall). In the marine sedimentary basins of the Tethys realm, an abrupt change of carbonate factories and the establishment of anoxic conditions mark the beginning of the climate change. The CPE also marks the first massive appearance of calcareous nannoplankton, while groups, like bryozoans and crinoids, show a sharp decline during this event.

Palynological association from the Heiligkreuz Formation provide information on palynostratigraphy and palaeoclimate during the last part of the Carnian Pluvial Event (CPE). From Roghi et al., 2014

On land, palaeobotanical evidence shows a shift of floral associations of towards elements more adapted to humid conditions (the palynological record across the CPE suggest at least 3–4 discrete humid pulses). Several families and orders make their first appearance during the Carnian: bennettitaleans, modern ferns, and conifer families (Pinaceae, Araucariaceae, Cheirolepidaceae). The oldest biological inclusions found preserved in amber also come from the Carnian; and key herbivorous groups such as dicynodonts and rhynchosaurs, which had represented 50% or more of faunas, disappeared, and their places were taken by dinosaurs.

Despite the global significance of the CPE,  the trigger of the environmental change  is still disputed. Volcanic emissions from the Wrangellia igneous province and the dissociation of methane clathrates could be linked to the CPE. It seems that the combination of that events  would be the most likely explanation for the substantial shift of the C isotope excursion observed at the CPE.

 

References:

Massimo Bernardi et al. Dinosaur diversification linked with the Carnian Pluvial Episode, Nature Communications (2018). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-03996-1

Miller et al., Astronomical age constraints and extinction mechanisms of the Late Triassic Carnian crisis, Scientific Reports | 7: 2557 | (2017) DOI:10.1038/s41598-017-02817-7

Rogui et al. Field trip to Permo-Triassic Palaeobotanical and Palynological sites of the Southern Alps, Geo.Alp. 11. 29-84. (2014)

Paul C. Sereno, Ricardo N. Martínez & Oscar A. Alcober (2013) Osteology of Eoraptor lunensis (Dinosauria, Sauropodomorpha),Journal of Vertebrate Paleontology, 32:sup1, 83-179, DOI: 10.1080/02724634.2013.820113

Our once and future oceans

Earth is the only planet in our Solar System with high concentrations of gaseous diatomic oxygen. Simultaneously, this unique feature of Earth’s atmosphere has allowed the presence of an ozone layer that absorbed UV radiations. The progressive oxygenation of the atmosphere and oceans was sustained by an event of high organic carbon burial, called the Paleoproterozoic Lomagundi Event (ca. 2.3-2.1 billion years ago), which lasted well over 100 million years.

Oxygen is fundamental to life, and influences biogeochemical processes at their most fundamental level. But the oxygen content of Earth has varied greatly through time. In Earth history there have been relatively brief intervals when a very significant expansion of low-oxygen regions occurred throughout the world’s oceans. The discovery of black shales at many drill sites from the Atlantic, Indian, and the Pacific Ocean led to the recognition of widespread anoxic conditions in the global ocean spanning limited stratigraphic horizons. In 1976, S. O. Schlanger and H. C. Jenkyns termed these widespread depositional black shale intervals as “Oceanic Anoxic Events”. This was one of the greatest achievement of the DSDP (Deep Sea Drilling Project).

Corals one of the most vulnerable creatures in the ocean. Photo Credit: Katharina Fabricius/Australian Institute of Marine Science

Human activity is a major driver of the dynamics of Earth system. After the World War II, the impact of human activity on the global environment dramatically increased. Over the past 50 years, open ocean lost an estimated 2%, or 4.8 ±2.1 petamoles (77 billion metric tons), of its oxygen, and ocean oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) have expanded by an area about the size of the European Union. Deoxygenation is linked to other ocean stressors, including warming and acidification.

Ocean warming reduces the solubility of oxygen, and raises metabolic rates accelerating the rate of oxygen consumption. Warming also influence on thermal stratification and indirectly enhances salinity driven stratification through its effects on ice melt and precipitation. The increased stratification alters the mainly wind-driven circulation in the upper few hundred meters of the ocean and slows the deep overturning circulation. Intensified stratification may account for the remaining 85% of global ocean oxygen loss by reducing ventilation nd by affecting the supply of nutrients controlling production of organic matter and its subsequent sinking out of the surface ocean. Warming is predicted to exacerbate oxygen depletion in coastal systems through mechanisms similar to those of the open ocean.

Time scale [Gradstein et al., 2005] illustrating the stratigraphic position and nomenclature of OAEs (From Jenkyns, 2010).

The geological records show that large and rapid global warming events occurred repeatedly during the course of Earth history. The growing concern about modern climate change has accentuated interest in understanding the causes and consequences of these ancient abrupt warming events. The early Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event  (T-OAE; ∼183 mya) in the Jurassic Period is associated with a major negative carbon isotope excursion, mass extinction, marine transgression and global warming. Besides, the marked expansion of the oxygen minimum zone over the last decades, is quite similar to the model originally invoked for the genesis of Cretaceous OAEs. The better understanding of the Mesozoic ocean-climate system and the formation of OAEs would help us to predict environmental and biotic changes in a future greenhouse world.

References:

DENISE BREITBURG, LISA A. LEVIN, ANDREAS OSCHLIES, MARILAURE GRÉGOIRE, FRANCISCO P. CHAVEZ, DANIEL J. CONLEY, VÉRONIQUE GARÇON, DENIS GILBERT, DIMITRI GUTIÉRREZ, KIRSTEN ISENSEE, GIL S. JACINTO, KARIN E. LIMBURG, IVONNE MONTES, S. W. A. NAQVI, GRANT C. PITCHER, NANCY N. RABALAIS, MICHAEL R. ROMAN, KENNETH A. ROSE, BRAD A. SEIBEL, MACIEJ TELSZEWSKI, MORIAKI YASUHARA, JING ZHANG (2018), Declining oxygen in the global ocean and coastal waters, Science, Vol. 359, Issue 6371, DOI: 10.1126/science.aam7240

Jenkyns, H. C. (2010), Geochemistry of oceanic anoxic eventsGeochem. Geophys. Geosyst.11, Q03004, doi:10.1029/2009GC002788.

Holz, M., Mesozoic paleogeography and paleoclimates – a discussion of the diverse greenhouse and hothouse conditions of an alien world, Journal of South American Earth Sciences (2015), doi: 10.1016/j.jsames.2015.01.001

Tennant, J. P., Mannion, P. D., Upchurch, P., Sutton, M. D. and Price, G. D. (2016), Biotic and environmental dynamics through the Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous transition: evidence for protracted faunal and ecological turnover. Biol Rev. doi:10.1111/brv.12255 

 

Dark skies at the end of the Cretaceous

A time-lapse animation showing severe cooling due to sulfate aerosols from the Chicxulub asteroid impact 66 million years ago (Credit: PKI)

Thirty years ago, the discovery of anomalously high abundance of iridium and other platinum group elements in the Cretaceous/Palaeogene (K-Pg) boundary led to the hypothesis that an asteroid collided with the Earth and caused one of the most devastating events in the history of life. The impact created the 180-kilometre wide Chicxulub crater causing widespread tsunamis along the coastal zones of the surrounding oceans and released an estimated energy equivalent of 100 teratons of TNT and produced high concentrations of dust, soot, and sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere. Three-quarters of the plant and animal species on Earth disappeared. Marine ecosystems lost about half of their species while freshwater environments shows low extinction rates, about 10% to 22% of genera.

Recent studies suggest that the amount of sunlight that reached Earth’s surface was reduced by approximately 20%. Photosynthesis stopped and the food chain collapsed. The decrease of sunlight caused a drastic short-term global reduction in temperature (15 °C on a global average, 11 °C over the ocean, and 28 °C over land). While the surface and lower atmosphere cooled, the tropopause became much warmer, eliminate the tropical cold trap and allow water vapor mixing ratios to increase to well over 1,000 ppmv in the stratosphere. Those events accelerated the destruction of the ozone layer. During this period, UV light was able to reach the surface at highly elevated and harmful levels.

Gravity anomaly map of the Chicxulub impact structure (From Wikimedia Commons)

In 1980, Walter Alvarez and his father, Luis Alvarez ignited a huge controversy when they concluded that the anomalous iridium concentration at the K-Pg boundary is best interpreted as the result of an asteroid impact. They even calculated the size of the asteroid (about 7 km in diameter) and the crater that this body might have caused (about 100–200 km across). In 1981, Pemex (a Mexican oil company) identified Chicxulub as the site of a this massive asteroid impact. The crater is more than 180 km (110 miles) in diameter and 20 km (10 miles) in depth, making the feature one of the largest confirmed impact structures on Earth.

 

References:

Charles G. Bardeen, Rolando R. Garcia, Owen B. Toon, and Andrew J. Conley, On transient climate change at the Cretaceous−Paleogene boundary due to atmospheric soot injections, PNAS 2017 ; published ahead of print August 21, 2017 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1708980114

Brugger J.G. Feulner, and S. Petri (2016), Baby, it’s cold outside: Climate model simulations of the effects of the asteroid impact at the end of the CretaceousGeophys. Res. Lett.43,  doi:10.1002/2016GL072241.

Mammalian dwarfing during ancient greenhouse warming events.

Bighorn Basin, Wyoming (Image: University of New Hampshire, College of Engineering and Physical Sciences)

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, known as PETM (approximately 55.8 million years ago), was a short-lived (~ 200,000 years) global warming event due to a rapid rise in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It was suggested that this warming was initiated by the melting of methane hydrates on the seafloor and permafrost at high latitudes. This event was accompanied by other large-scale changes in the climate system, for example, the patterns of atmospheric circulation, vapor transport, precipitation, intermediate and deep-sea circulation, a rise in global sea level and ocean acidification.

The second largest hyperthermal of the early Eocene, known as ETM2, occurred about 2 million years after the PETM (approximately 53.7 Ma). Another smaller-amplitude hyperthermal, identified as “H2,” appears in the marine record about 100,000 years after ETM2 (approximately 53.6 Ma).

Sifrhippus sp. restoration in the Naturhistoriska Riksmuseet, Stockholm, Sweden (From Wikimedia Commons)

Dwarfing of mammalian taxa across the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was first described in the Bighorn Basin, Wyoming. The basin has a remarkably fossil-rich sedimentary record of late Palaeocene to early Eocene age. The interval of the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum is represented by a unique mammalian fauna composed by smaller, but morphologically similar species to those found later in the Eocene. Diminutive species include the early equid Sifrhippus sandrae, the phenacodontids Ectocion parvus and Copecion davisi. 

Fossils of early equids are common in lower Eocene deposits of the Bighorn Basin, making a comparison between the PETM and ETM2 hyperthermal events possible. Using tooth size as a proxy for body size, researchers found a statistically significant decrease in the body size of mammals’ during the PETM and ETM2. Teeth in adult mammals scale proportionally to body size. For instance, Sifrhippus demonstrated a decrease of at least 30% in body size during the first 130,000 years of the PETM, followed by a 76% rebound in body size during the recovery phase of the PETM. Arenahippus, an early horse the size of a small dog, decreased by about 14 percent in size during the ETM2. (D’Ambrosia et al., 2017)

Arenahippus jaw fragment (Image credit: University of New Hampshire)

Body size change during periods of climate change is commonly seen throughout historical and geological records. Studies of modern animal populations have also yielded similar body size results. Tropical trees, anurans and mammals have all demonstrated decreased size or growth rate during drought years. In the case of mammals, the observed decrease in the average body size could have been an evolutionary response to create a more efficient way to reduce body heat.

The combination of global warming and the release of large amounts of carbon to the ocean-atmosphere system during the PETM has encouraged analogies with the modern anthropogenic climate change, which has already led to significant shifts in the distribution, phenology and behaviour of organisms. Plus, the consequences of shrinkage are not yet fully understood. This underlines the urgency for immediate action on global carbon emission reductions.

 

 

References:

Abigail R. D’Ambrosia, William C. Clyde, Henry C. Fricke, Philip D. Gingerich, Hemmo A. Abels. Repetitive mammalian dwarfing during ancient greenhouse warming events. Science Advances, 2017; 3 (3): e1601430 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1601430

Rankin, B., Fox, J., Barron-Ortiz, C., Chew, A., Holroyd, P., Ludtke, J., Yang, X., Theodor, J. 2015. The extended Price equation quantifies species selection on mammalian body size across the Palaeocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum. Proceedings of the Royal Society B. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2015.1097

Burger, B.J., Northward range extension of a diminutive-sized mammal (Ectocion parvus) and the implication of body size change during the Paleoc…, Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol. (2012), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2012.09.008

 

Sea-surface temperatures during the last interglaciation.

 

203_co2-graph-021116

The relentless rise of carbon dioxide (Credit: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.)

A proverb of Confucius states “Study the past if you would divine the future.” Human activity ensures that our climate will become warmer in the next century and remain warm for many millennia to come which makes particularly pertinent the study of periods in which at least sectors of the Earth system may have been “warmer” than today. The last interglaciation (LIG, 129 to 116 thousand years ago) was one of the warmest periods in the last 800,000 years with an associated sea-level rise of 6 to 9 m above present levels . A new study by Jeremy S. Hoffman and colleagues, compiled 104 published LIG sea surface temperature (SST) records from 83 marine sediment core sites. Each core site was compared to data sets from 1870-1889 and 1995-2014, respectively. The analysis revealed that 129,000 years ago, the global ocean surface temperature was similar to the 1870-1889 average. But 125,000 years ago, the global SST increased by 0.5° ± 0.3°Celcius, reaching a temperature indistinguishable from the 1995-2014 average. The result is worrisome, because it shows that changes in temperatures which occurred over thousands of years, are now occurring in the space of a single century. The study also suggests that in the long term, sea level will rise at least six meters in response to the global warming.

Data from the study by Jeremy Hoffman et al. representing sample sites, sea surface temperatures, and historic carbon dioxide level

Data from the study by Jeremy Hoffman et al. representing sample sites, sea surface temperatures, and historic carbon dioxide level

The planet’s average surface temperature has risen about 2.0 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century. After the World War II, the atmospheric CO2 concentration grew, from 311 ppm in 1950 to 369 ppm in 2000. Glaciers  from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are fading away, dumping 260 billion metric tons of water into the ocean every year. The ocean acidification is occurring at a rate faster than at any time in the last 300 million years, and  the patterns of rainfall and drought are changing and undermining food security which have major implications for human health, welfare and social infrastructure. In his master book L’Evolution Créatrice (1907), French philosopher Henri Bergson, wrote:  “A century has elapsed since the invention of the steam engine, and we are only just beginning to feel the depths of the shock it gave us.”

References:

J.S. Hoffman et al. Regional and global sea-surface temperatures during the last interglaciation. Science. Vol. 355, January 20, 2017, p. 276. doi: 10.1126/science.aai8464.

Past Interglacials Working Group of PAGES (2016), Interglacials of the last 800,000 years, Rev. Geophys., 54, 162–219, doi: 10.1002/2015RG000482. 

Bakker, P., et al. (2014), Temperature trends during the present and Last Interglacial periods—A multi-model-data comparison, Quat. Sci. Rev., 99, 224–243, doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.06.031.

Climate model simulations at the end of the Cretaceous.

gg_60212w_crater

Artist’s reconstruction of Chicxulub crater 66 million years ago.

About thirty years ago, the discovery of anomalously high abundance of iridium and other platinum group elements in the Cretaceous/Palaeogene (K-Pg) boundary led to the hypothesis that a 10 km asteroid collided with the Earth and caused one of the most devastating events in the history of life. The impact created the 180-kilometre wide Chicxulub crater causing widespread tsunamis along the coastal zones of the surrounding oceans and released an estimated energy equivalent of 100 teratons of TNT and produced high concentrations of dust, soot, and sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere.

To model the climatic effects of the impact, a team of scientist from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), use literature information from geophysical impact modeling indicating that for a 2.9 km thick target region consisting of 30% evaporites and 70% water-saturated carbonates and a dunite projectile with 50% porosity, a velocity of 20 km/s and a diameter between 15 and 20 km, a sulfur mass of 100 Gt is produced. This is about 10,000 times the amount of sulfur released during the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. Additionally, for a sulfur mass of 100 Gt, about 1400 Gt of carbon dioxide are injected into the atmosphere, corresponding to an increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration by 180 ppm. There could be additional CO2 emissions from ocean outgassing and perturbations of the terrestrial biosphere, adding a total of 360 ppm and 540 ppm of CO2. The main result is a severe and persistent global cooling in the decades after the impact. Global annual mean temperatures over land dropped to -32C in the coldest year and continental temperatures in the tropics reaching a mere -22C. This model is supported by a migration of cool, boreal dinoflagellate species into the subtropic Tethyan realm directly across the K–Pg boundary interval and the ingression of boreal benthic foraminifera into the deeper parts of the Tethys Ocean, interpreted to reflect millennial timescale changes in the ocean circulation after the impact (Vellekoop, 2014).

A time-lapse animation showing severe cooling due to sulfate aerosols from the Chicxulub asteroid impact 66 million years ago (Credit: PKI)

A time-lapse animation showing severe cooling due to sulfate aerosols from the Chicxulub asteroid impact 66 million years ago (Credit: PKI)

References:

Brugger J., G. Feulner, and S. Petri (2016), Baby, it’s cold outside: Climate model simulations of the effects of the asteroid impact at the end of the Cretaceous, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43,  doi:10.1002/2016GL072241.

Alvarez, L. W., W. Alvarez, F. Asaro, and H. V. Michel (1980), Extraterrestrial Cause for the Cretaceous-Tertiary Extinction, Science, 208 (4448), 1095{1108, doi: 10.1126/science.208.4448.1095.

Galeotti, S., H. Brinkhuis, and M. Huber (2004), Records of post Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary millennial-scale cooling from the western Tethys: A smoking gun for the impact-winter hypothesis?, Geology, 32, 529, doi:10.1130/G20439.1

Johan Vellekoop, Appy Sluijs, Jan Smit, Stefan Schouten, Johan W. H. Weijers, Jaap S. Sinningh Damsté, and Henk Brinkhuis, Rapid short-term cooling following the Chicxulub impact at the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary, PNAS (2014) doi: 10.1073/pnas.1319253111

The Early Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event.

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The Early Cretaceous (Aptian Age), 120 Ma.

The geological records show that large and rapid global warming events occurred repeatedly during the course of Earth history. The growing concern about modern climate change has accentuated interest in understanding the causes and consequences of these ancient abrupt warming events. The early Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE1a, 120 Ma) represents a geologically brief time interval characterized by rapid global warming, dramatic changes in ocean circulation including widespread oxygen deficiency, and profound changes in marine biotas. During the event, black shales were deposited in all the main ocean basins. It was also associated with the calcification crisis of the nannoconids, the most ubiquitous planktic calcifiers during the Early Cretaceous. Their near disappearance is one of the most significant events in the nannoplankton fossil record.

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Scanning electron microscope photos of different nannofossil assemblages from Early Cretaceous chalks from the North Sea (adapted from Mutterlose & Bottini, 2013)

Calcareous nannoplankton represent a major component of oceanic phytoplankton. Their calcareous skeletons can be found in fine-grained pelagic sediments in high concentrations and the biomineralization of coccoliths is a globally significant rock-forming process. The ‘nannoconid decline’ is related to the emplacement of the Ontong Java Plateau (OJP). The  CO2 released by the flood basalts was the main player in the climatic events. However, records from the Pacific and Tethys realms demonstrate that during OAE 1a the  major shift in global oceanic osmium composition occurs well after the onset of the nannoconid crisis. Previous studies argued that the nannoconid crisis was caused by ocean acidification due to numerous pulses of CO2 and methane. The Ontong Java Plateau is a massive, submerged seafloor.  It covers an area of about 1,900,000 square kilometers. It  was emplaced ca. 120 Ma, with a much smaller magmatic pulse of ca. 90 Ma. The CO2 release was too late, and too gradual, to have caused the calcification crisis in the nannoconids by ocean acidification

References:

Naafs, B. D. A. et al., Gradual and sustained carbon dioxide release during Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a, Nature Geosci. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2627 (2016)

Jenkyns, H. C. (2010), Geochemistry of oceanic anoxic events, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 11, Q03004, doi:10.1029/2009GC002788.

The EECO, the warmest interval of the past 65 million years.

Cenozoic strata on Seymour Island, Antarctica (© 2016 University of Leeds)

Cenozoic strata on Seymour Island, Antarctica (© 2016 University of Leeds)

During the last 540 million years, Earth’s climate has oscillated between three basic states: Icehouse, Greenhouse (subdivided into Cool and Warm states), and Hothouse (Kidder & Worsley, 2010). The “Hothouse” condition is relatively short-lived and is consequence from the release of anomalously large inputs of CO2 into the atmosphere during the formation of Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs), when atmospheric CO2 concentrations may rise above 16 times (4,800 ppmv), while the “Icehouse” is characterized by polar ice, with alternating glacial–interglacial episodes in response to orbital forcing. The ‘Cool Greenhouse” displays  some polar ice and alpine glaciers,  with global average temperatures between 21° and 24°C. Finally, the ‘Warm Greenhouse’ lacked of any polar ice, and global average temperatures might have ranged from 24° to 30°C.

Reconstructions of Earth’s history have considerably improved our knowledge of episodes of rapid emissions of greenhouse gases and abrupt warming. Consequently, the development of different proxy measures of paleoenvironmental parameters has received growing attention in recent years.

A) Scanning electron microphotographs of fossil Ginkgo adiantoides cuticle showing stomata (arrows) and epidermal cells. B) Scanning electron microphotographs of modern Ginkgo biloba cuticle.

A) Scanning electron microphotographs of fossil Ginkgo adiantoides cuticle showing stomata (arrows) and epidermal cells. B) Scanning electron microphotographs of modern Ginkgo biloba cuticle (From Smith et al. 2010)

The early Eocene was characterized by a series of short-lived episode  of global warming, superimposed on a long-term early Cenozoic warming trend. Atmospheric CO2 was the major driver of the overall warmth of the Eocene. For  the  Paleocene-Eocene  Thermal  Maximum (PETM; 55.8 million years ago), and the Early Eocene Climate Optimum (EECO; 51 to 53 million years ago) the transient rise of global temperatures has been estimated to be 4 to 8° (Hoffman et al., 2012).

Reconstructions using multiple climate proxy records, identified the EECO as the warmest interval of the past 65 million years. One such proxy measure is the stomatal frequency of land plants, which has been shown in some species to vary inversely with atmospheric pCO2 and has been used to estimate paleo-pCO2 for multiple geological time periods. Stomata are the controlled pores through which plants exchange gases with their environments, and play a key role in regulating the balance between photosynthetic productivity and water loss through transpiration. (Smith et al., 2010).

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Foraminiferal assemblage of the EECO (From KHANOLKAR and SARASWATI, 2015)

Pollen and other palynomorphs proved to be an extraordinary tool to palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. Terrestrial  microflora from the EECO indicates a  time  period  with  warm  and  humid  climatic  conditions and displays a higher  degree  of tropicality  than the microflora of  the PETM.

A new high-fidelity record of CO2 can be obtained by using the boron isotope of well preserved planktonic foraminifera. The boron isotopic composition of seawater is also recquiered to estimate the pH. The global mean surface temperature change for the EECO is thought to be ~14 ± 3 °C warmer than the pre-industrial period, and ~5 °C warmer than the late Eocene.

Evolution of atmospheric CO2 levels and global climate over the past 65 million years

Evolution of atmospheric CO2 levels and global climate over
the past 65 million years (From Zachos et al., 2008)

Since the start of the Industrial Revolution the anthropogenic release of CO2 into the Earth’s atmosphere has increased a 40%. Glaciers  from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are fading away, dumping 260 billion metric tons of water into the ocean every year. The ocean acidification is occurring at a rate faster than at any time in the last 300 million years, and  the patterns of rainfall and drought are changing and undermining food security which have major implications for human health, welfare and social infrastructure. These atmospheric changes follow an upward trend in anthropogenically induced CO2 and CH4. If  fossil-fuel emissions continue unstoppable, in less than 300 years pCO2 will reach a level not present on Earth for roughly 50 million years.

 

References:

Eleni Anagnostou, Eleanor H. John, Kirsty M. Edgar, Gavin L. Foster, Andy Ridgwell, Gordon N. Inglis, Richard D. Pancost, Daniel J. Lunt, Paul N. Pearson. Changing atmospheric CO2 concentration was the primary driver of early Cenozoic climate. Nature, 2016; DOI: 10.1038/nature17423

Zachos, J. C., Dickens, G. R. &  Zeebe, R. E. An early Cenozoic perspective on greenhouse warming and carbon-cycle dynamics. Nature 451, 279283(2008)

Loptson, C. A., Lunt, D. J. & Francis, J. E. Investigating vegetation-climate feedbacks during the early Eocene. Clim. Past 10, 419436 (2014)

Robin Y. Smith, David R. Greenwood, James F. Basinger; Estimating paleoatmospheric pCO2 during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum from stomatal frequency of Ginkgo, Okanagan Highlands, British Columbia, Canada; Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, Volume 293, Issues 1–2, 1 (2010).